In a recent study, the springtime melt pond fraction has been suggested to be a predictor of subsequent September Arctic sea ice minimum extent anomalies. However, another study based on satellite data did not provide evidence for such a relationship. We explore this association in EC-Earth3, which includes an explicit treatment of melt ponds, for the present-day climate. We find a statistically significant inverse relationship between September sea ice extent and mid-summer (June–July) melt pond fraction on the seasonal scale. Our results support the satellite-based inferences that the mid-summer melt pond fraction highly correlates with the September ice extent.
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