The effect of fuel price scenarios on Belgian fishing fleet dynamics
Stouten, H.; Van Craeynest, K.; Heene, A.; Gellynck, X.; Polet, H. (2007). The effect of fuel price scenarios on Belgian fishing fleet dynamics. CM Documents - ICES, CM 2007(M:04). ICES: Copenhagen. 13 pp.
Part of: ICES CM Documents - ICES. ICES: Copenhagen. ISSN 1015-4744
Since there is no doubt about the huge impact high fuel prices currently have on the performance of European fleets, researches start to wonder about the future. This paper contributes to this recently emerging discussion. It evaluates the effect of three fuel price scenarios on Belgian fleet dynamics. These scenarios are tested using a microeconomicmicroworld.The obtained results prove on the one hand that rising fuel prices do have a negative impact on the future size and performance of the Belgian fleet. However, these rising fuel prices do not affect every vesseltype as much. Additionally, in the long run, these negative impacts are weakened and counteracted by the introduction of adaptive strategies on vessel and fleet level which cope with the rise in fuel price. Therefore, it is important to realize that the rise in fishing costs caused by the increase in fuel cost will generally be considerably smaller than the initial impact suggests.
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